Refreshing our 2018 estimates

Canadian and U.S. morning comments

December 12, 2017

We have refreshed our SU estimates and have taken down cash flows, largely coming from oil sands.

Consensus estimates have SU’s 2018E CFPS at $5.45/sh. Using a similar price deck to the Street (US$55/bbl WTI, $0.80 FX, $16/bbl WTI-WCS discount, US$17/bbl NYH 321 crack spreads) our current estimate is $4.69/sh (down 12% from our previous estimate at the noted price deck).

Using strip pricing (US$56.54/bbl WTI, $0.79 FX, $16.94/bbl WTI-WCS discount, US $19.65/bbl NYH 321 crack spreads) our 2018E CFPS estimate is now $5.40/sh (~1% lower than consensus but with a more aggressive price deck).

Read more…